GB Energy: credibility will be won or lost in the next 12 months

High hopes, hard choices

Great British Energy (GBE) has been launched with no shortage of ambition. Miliband has framed it as a decade‑long national project, positioning GBE as a public co‑investor and developer of clean power. The HQ in Aberdeen carries symbolic weight, signalling a commitment to transition the UK’s energy heartlands.

In recent weeks, I’ve had the opportunity to meet with Dan McGrail, CEO of GBE, and his team. Their clarity of vision, focus on the task and ambition to make a genuine impact stood out. It reinforced my view that GBE can succeed – and must succeed – if the UK is to accelerate decarbonisation at the pace required.

But behind the rhetoric lies a familiar credibility gap. The company’s success will depend less on long‑term visions than on what happens in the next six to twelve months. In that window, GBE must secure its funding, prove its mandate with tangible delivery, and communicate relentlessly.

The capital question

The single biggest determinant of success is whether the promised £8.3bn of capital is both appropriated and protected. The Autumn Budget will be the first test. Treasury has a history of trimming capital allocations under fiscal pressure – most recently on infrastructure and net‑zero spending. If GBE’s funds are diluted into small grants or postponed commitments, it will fail to crowd in the private capital that its model requires.

Other public investors – such as the Scottish National Investment Bank, the National Wealth Fund and others – have faced similar pressures. For them, as for GBE, clarity of mission and unwavering focus are essential to avoid being buffeted by short‑term political or fiscal shifts.

Investors will not take long‑term bets on a public partner whose own finances are uncertain. A clear, multi‑year capital profile is therefore existential.

Delivering early wins

GBE’s first public‑facing moves - grants for schools and hospitals - have created visibility but little proof of concept. To build credibility, it must deliver two or three high‑profile, grid‑aligned flagship projects within the next year.

Yesterday’s announcement that Great British Energy has taken a minority stake in Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners’ proposed 100MW Pentland floating wind farm is precisely the kind of early, visible step that can help. The option to invest up to £50m each as the project progresses is a clear signal of intent. For GBE, this investment represents a much‑needed quick win - but it cannot be the last. More must follow, and quickly, if the organisation is to set the right course and build sustainable, long‑term credibility.

(Full disclosure: Aspect is proud to have advised the Pentland project for the past four years.)

These flagship wins must be bankable, investable and clearly additive: floating offshore wind, storage hubs or tidal energy arrays would all signal seriousness. At the same time, they must avoid straying off‑mandate into areas where GBE would crowd out private developers.

Unblocking the grid

Even with capital secured, no clean‑power build‑out can succeed without timely grid connections. Britain’s queue for transmission capacity is already a binding constraint on new projects. GBE will need to work hand‑in‑glove with Ofgem, the National Energy System Operator and planning authorities to ensure its pipeline can actually connect.

This makes grid reform every bit as important as capitalisation. Without it, early projects risk becoming stranded assets.

Place‑based legitimacy

With its base in Scotland, GBE has an opportunity to root the energy transition in communities that have historically powered Britain. But that symbolism must translate into durable local jobs and supply chains. At the same time, benefits must be spread across England and Wales to avoid charges of regional favouritism.

Local opposition to new infrastructure – pylons, wind farms, solar arrays – remains potent. GBE’s credibility will depend on showing communities that hosting projects delivers concrete gains, from cheaper bills to equity stakes and employment.

The communication test

More than anything else, GBE must get the messaging right. Too often government projects have been undone by inconsistent or overly technical communication. For GBE, the story must be simple and consistent: lower bills, secure jobs, national security.

That means:

• Publishing a transparent rolling pipeline of projects, with regional milestones and community benefits.
• Creating a single, accessible source of truth on impacts, timelines and connections.
• Ensuring every ministerial and corporate voice aligns to the same message discipline.

Investor confidence, public support and delivery credibility all depend on this communications foundation.