3 min read
There’s a familiar mental trap.
The idea that, at some point in the future, everything will finally be under control. The big challenges resolved. The pressure eased. The system working as it should.
And until that moment arrives?
It’s hard to feel like things are going well.
Oliver Burkeman, the British author of Four Thousand Weeks, describes this as the fantasy that one day we’ll “get on top of everything” – that life will eventually reach a state of completion.
It never does.
Not in life. And not in complex systems.
Because the reality is less neat, and more uncomfortable: things are always in progress. Always partially solved. Always unfinished.
The question is whether we interpret that as failure – or as the nature of how progress actually works.
The same thinking is shaping the energy transition
This matters more than it might seem.
Because the same mindset shows up in how we talk about the energy transition.
There’s an implicit belief that everything will only feel “right” once the system is fully decarbonised, stable, affordable and secure.
Until then, it’s easy to frame everything as falling short.
But that framing creates a problem.
We’ve mistaken “not done yet” for “not working.”
The progress hiding in plain sight
Step back, and the picture looks different.
Renewables are scaling.
Investment is flowing – imperfectly, but materially.
Technologies that were once peripheral are now central.
Systems are evolving – incrementally, but meaningfully.
None of this suggests the transition is complete.
But it does suggest it is happening.
And in a system of this scale and complexity, that distinction matters.
Why we default to seeing what’s broken
There’s a psychological bias at play here.
We are far more attuned to problems than progress.
We notice what’s missing more than what’s improving.
We assume that if the end state hasn’t been reached, the current state must be inadequate.
In high-stakes sectors like energy, that bias is amplified. Scepticism can feel like rigour. Concern can feel like realism.
But taken too far, it distorts the picture.
Because if the prevailing narrative is that nothing is working, confidence erodes – regardless of the underlying reality.
Richard Carlson, the psychologist and author of Don’t Sweat the Small Stuff, made a simpler but equally powerful point: while we don’t control every circumstance, we do have a say in how we interpret them.
That doesn’t mean ignoring the challenges.
It means recognising that two things can be true at once:
This is difficult.
And progress is real.
Why this matters for energy leaders
For leaders in the energy sector, that distinction is more than philosophical.
Confidence – whether from investors, policymakers or the public – isn’t built on perfection. It’s built on credible momentum.
On evidence that systems are improving.
That lessons are being learned.
That movement is happening even if the destination hasn’t been reached.
Which requires a shift in how we define success.
Not as a single future moment where everything is resolved.
But as a continuous process of progress – within constraints, with trade-offs, and without the expectation of neat completion.
The transition won’t arrive; it will continue
The energy transition will not arrive as a finished product.
There won’t be a moment where everything clicks into place.
There will only be progress – sometimes fast, sometimes frustratingly slow – but progress, nonetheless.
The question is whether we recognise it.
Because if we continue to frame “not done yet” as “not working,” we risk undermining the very confidence the transition depends on.
And if we shift that perspective – even slightly – we gain something more useful.
A clearer view of reality.
A more grounded sense of progress.
And a more resilient kind of optimism.
Not the naïve kind.
The kind that keeps things moving.
